विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 21.11.2022

21.11.2022 06:48 PM

Brazil is preparing for a serious recession

Last Friday, Roberto Campos Neto, the central bank's president, announced changes to the fiscal plan, indicating that a deterioration in the fiscal situation might necessitate a change in monetary policy.

Brazil is preparing for a severe economic downturn.

The words are primarily addressed to the transition team of Brazil's incoming President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who intends to include new fiscal policy commitments in the proposed constitutional amendment.

The proposed amendment will specifically include the commitment to the new fiscal anchor, which exempts nearly 200 billion reais ($37.16 billion) in social spending from the constraints of the nation's budget.

The first step toward an unregulated economy was taken with this one. So, following the election, Lula pledged to remove the constitutional spending cap, which limits public spending growth by taking the previous year's inflation into account, without mentioning the new fiscal anchor that will take its place. Investors were alarmed by the news because it raised the possibility of a record-high rise in public debt and a change in monetary policy. Brazilian assets consequently reacted negatively by devaluing the real.

The head of the Brazilian National Bank today also spoke unfavorably about the substantial increase in spending that the incoming administration of the new president, who takes office on January 1, has planned.

Remember that the Central Bank had warned that it might resume tightening monetary policy if expected disinflation did not materialize after 12 straight increases, which caused interest rates to rise to 13.75% from a record low of 2% in March 2021.

After winning the elections, the new president is undoubtedly attempting to win over a devoted electorate, but new loan pools could burden Brazilians. In addition, the advantageous period of low dollar prices and unrestricted borrowing has passed. Taking out dollar loans at this time would be foolish. Although it is entirely justified given the current circumstances, the new government may continue to restrict itself to domestic loan bonds and avoid attracting external borrowings.

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