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12.03.2025 05:35 PM
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 12th (U.S. Session)
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Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 148.36 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 points. Selling at 148.01 at the start of the European session resulted in losses.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key inflation indicator that reflects changes in the overall price level of goods and services purchased by consumers. Its impact on the currency market is significant, as is the core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy. A high CPI reading can lead to tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, typically strengthening the dollar. Conversely, a low CPI can trigger a more accommodative policy and a weaker dollar.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

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Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if it reaches the entry point around 148.85 (green line on the chart), aiming for an increase to 149.71 (thicker green line on the chart). At 149.71, I plan to exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point downward movement. The pair's potential growth is within the framework of an upward correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 148.39 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 148.85 and 149.71 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below 148.39 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.56, where I will exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20-25 point upward correction. Selling pressure on the pair could emerge at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 148.85 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 148.39 and 147.56 can be expected.

This image is no longer relevant

What's on the chart:

  • Thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument.
  • Thick green line represents the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or where profits can be manually secured, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
  • Thin red line represents the entry price for selling the trading instrument.
  • Thick red line represents the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or where profits can be manually secured, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
  • MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is essential to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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