Despite the slightly defused internal political situation in Europe after the re-election of Macron as president of France for the 2nd term, the euro continues to decline against the dollar at the beginning of today's trading day, reaching a 2-year low near the 1.0710 mark.
The euro also declined against the protective franc and yen. However, there is a contradictory picture in some cross-pairs with the euro. If the euro falls against the Canadian dollar, then it rises again against the British pound, continuing the upward correction formed at the beginning of last week. EUR/GBP reached 0.8414 last Friday, and today the pair continues to grow. At the time of writing, the pair is trading near the 0.8430 mark, moving towards the key resistance level of 0.8450.
Both the euro and the pound are currently weak against the dollar. Considering the general downward trend of EUR/GBP, which formed at the beginning of 2021, the current growth of the pair should be considered as a correction for now. It may still continue to the resistance levels of 0.8450 and 0.8480.
However, trends do not break so quickly. Therefore, it is logical to place additional pending sell orders near the above resistance levels.
The euro may strengthen if the ECB raises rates more significantly than markets expect, economists say, for example, if the key interest rate of the ECB exceeds the level of 1.5%, which is already taken into account by markets as a maximum for the next 1.5–2 years.
Otherwise, the euro will remain under pressure. The events in Ukraine may become a stagflationary shock for Europe, slowing economic growth and at the same time pushing up prices. This, according to many economists, makes it more difficult for the ECB to curtail stimulus measures in order to regain control over inflation and not undermine the economic recovery.
In the meantime, EUR/GBP is growing, including due to the continuing weakening of the pound. A number of weak macro statistics received from the UK last week continue to cloud the prospects of the British currency.
Thus, weak reports on retail sales (in March, retail sales fell by 1.4%, while economists expected a fall of 0.2%) and on the activity of purchasing managers (PMI from Markit Economics), indicating a fall in the composite PMI index in the UK in April to a 3-month low of 57.6 from 60.9 in March (forecast was 58.5), reduced traders' expectations regarding the strengthening of the pound.
GfK's previously published consumer confidence indicator, which dropped to its lowest level of -38 in April since 2008–2009 (after dropping to -31 in March), only adds to the current negative picture for the pound.
Weak macro statistics from the UK overshadows the enthusiasm of investors about the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England.
This week, the publication of macro statistics for the UK is not expected much. Therefore, in the dynamics of EUR/GBP, it is necessary to focus on the news that will come from the United States and the Eurozone, where disputes continue regarding the import of oil and gas from Russia. Although the European Union plans to further reduce energy dependence on Russian resources, this, in turn, will lead to a further increase in energy prices, also pushing up already high inflation.
On Tuesday (at 12:30 GMT), the US Census Bureau report on durable goods orders implying large investments will be released, on Thursday (at 12:30 GMT), data on US GDP for the 1st quarter, on Friday (at 06:00 GMT), data on the GDP of Germany, and (at 09:00 GMT) the Eurozone consumer inflation indices for the 1st quarter of 2022.
